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About the мovie recession dating:

A: Personal income comes from Table 2. In situations where a portion of a period is included in the recession, the whole period is deemed to be included in the recession period. All of our recession shading data is available using all three interpretations.

The following table shows the number of months earlier minus sign or later plus sign that the peak of the indicator occurred relative to the NBER's business-cycle peak date. Because of the time lag associated with the release of GDP data, and because business cycle turning points are associated with months rather than quarters, the dating committee relies on a number of monthly economic indicators. A: The committee does not make real-time judgments, but waits for the availability of all relevant data and for the completion of early data revisions. Depending on the application, the extrema, both individually and collectively, may be included in the recession period in whole or in part. For example, there was a recession beginning in March and ending in November that was not characterized by two successive quarterly declines in real GDP.


This is short enough to be sensitive to rapid changes in personal incomes without whipsawing you will false positives, as shown below: 3. There is thus always this niggling concern about how much you can trust your models. Figure 3.
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The recession shading data that we provide initially comes from the source as a list of dates that are either an economic peak or trough. This allows us to compare real-time observations of each of the 4 NBER Model components, as available to an outside observer at the time, to the latest August vintage. Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales The dark line shows the movement of manufacturing and trade in and the dashed line the average over the past 6 recessions. It is not inconceivable that a first release of data that showed a decline in real GDP would later be revised to show an increase.
A recession begins just after the economy reaches a peak of activity and ends as the economy reaches its trough. A: The Committee makes a separate determination of the calendar quarter of a peak or trough. I'm at a point where I want somebody in my life.

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